By Jim Carbone

Worldwide PC shipments will decline 3.2% for the year, but then post four consecutive years of unit volume growth, according to researcher IDC.

Computer shipments will fall from about 287.3 million in 2008 to 278.2 million in 2009. However, shipments will recover in 2010, growing about 7% to 298.8 million. Then there will be three years of double-digit PC growth as computer shipments reach nearly 420 million by 2013, according to the researcher.

During that time period, portable computers including laptops, notebooks and min-notebooks will grow at a faster rate than desktop PCs. For instance, in 2009, desktop shipments will decline 13.2% while portable PC shipments will rise 7% in 2009. In 2010, desktop shipments will fall 7%, while portables will increase 14.9%. From 2011, desktop shipments will rise 1-2% each year while portable growth will range 15-21% per year.

Bob O'Donnell, IDC's vice president, clients and displays, says “the worst is over” in terms of declining PC shipments and there will be growth toward the end of 2009.

"New product introductions coming this fall, including low-cost, thin-and-light consumer portables, low-cost Intel Atom-based all-in-ones, and, of course, Windows 7, should provide a spark that helps to push market towards positive shipment growth over the next 12 months," he says.